BuzzSugar

Best Picture Breakdown: No Country For Old Men

BuzzSugar — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 11:30:04 -0800

The wait is almost over for the 2008 Oscars, which will air on Sunday night. This week, I've been breaking down the five contenders for Best Picture, giving you the scoop on why each film could win and why it might not stand a chance. I've already examined There Will Be Blood, Michael Clayton, Atonement, and Juno. Today, I'm looking at the final nominee in the category, No Country For Old Men.

For this film, the Coen Bros. toned down their usual quirkiness to create a stark, spare thriller that creates an overwhelming feeling of dread. Adapted from Cormac McCarthy's novel of the same name, the movie tells the story of a crazed killer, a man on the run, and a sheriff who desperately wants to intervene before the worst happens. It's won the most awards of any nominated movie this season by far, and it seems to be the presumptive favorite heading into Sunday's awards. But is it a sure thing? To see how I think the movie will fare in the Best Picture race, just read more.

Why It Might Win

It's the complete package. From the screenplay to the cinematography to the performances to the bold decision to not have a score, there's no weak link in No Country. Every moment seems perfectly calculated to create a particular stark, bleak, terrifying mood that stays with viewers long after they've left the theater.
It has one of the year's most memorable performances from Javier Bardem as the quietly savage murderer Anton Chigurh (not to mention one of the year's most memorable weapons, his air tank). When I left the theater after seeing the movie, my movie-going companion jokingly whispered "careful, he's still out there" - and I actually shivered. Bardem is just that convincing as a serial killer without remorse. The other actors in the movie - Tommy Lee Jones and Josh Brolin, most notably - rise to his level.
The Academy likes epics; it also likes smaller, well-told stories. This movie is both.
It's the most lauded film of the year, with a whopping 75 awards to its credit.

Why It Might Not Win

As I noted in my Juno breakdown, there's speculation that it and There Will Be Blood could split the vote, letting another film in.
There have been mixed reactions - among both critics and viewers at large - to the film's ambiguous ending, as well as its decision to skip over what could have been a major dramatic climax. While I thought both things largely worked, I'd understand if others consider them fatal flaws.
The Academy might want to be contrarian. Voters might feel that No Country has already gotten its due and turn its attention elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of Miramax

Best Picture Breakdown: Juno

BuzzSugar — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 15:30:03 -0800

Just a few more days before the 2008 Oscars air on Sunday night! I've been breaking down the five contenders for Best Picture this week, giving you the scoop on why each film could win and why it might not stand a chance. Having examined There Will Be Blood, Michael Clayton and Atonement, today's nominee is Juno.

This charming, disarming "little" movie climbed all the way up to take a place among big Best Picture nominees like No Country for Old Men and Atonement. Who's "little" now, punk, huh? Jason Reitman (Thank You for Smoking) directs a talented cast in this tale of one quirky teenage girl's pregnancy and the young couple poised to adopt her baby. Screenwriter Diablo Cody's sharp dialogue and well-crafted story combined with great direction, quality performances and a fun soundtrack make for a highly endearing film. To see how I think this movie might fare in the Best Picture race, read more.

Why It Might Win

Well, frankly, it's freaking adorable. Despite the growing number of Juno haters out there providing an intense backlash, there are plenty of us Juno backers who say this film is incredibly enjoyable. It's sweet, it's funny, it reminds us of a more innocent time. And we like that. Of all the movies in this category, Juno is the only feel-good one. Unlike the creepy, dark feeling left in your stomach after No Country for Old Men or the heaving sobs induced by Atonement, Juno might elicit a happy tear or two, but then you can just go out for cheeseburgers and get on with life. It's nice.
Similarly, it's possible the Academy won't want to reward a darker movie because, as the Best Picture winner is sometimes considered a representation of our life and times, it may be too bleak a message to give the award to, say, There Will Be Blood. It would be joyful and satisfying to hand the award to something as affirming as Juno.
Juno's win might be a matter of simple math. As New York Magazine writer David Edelstein points out, it could happen that "No Country and There Will Be Blood split the nihilist-horror vote and little old edgy feel-good smash hit Juno sneaks in."

Why It Might Not Win

It's a known fact that comedies rarely win out over dramas at the Oscars. This will probably be one of those "it's nice just to be nominated" situations.
As I mentioned above, there has been an incredible backlash to Juno's popularity. The Academy might be having second thoughts about this one.
Juno could garner awards in other categories - most likely a win for Diablo Cody - thus fulfilling the Academy's urge to honor the film.
It might actually still be too little. Universal themes of motherhood and teenage angst aside, Juno may be slightly too homespun and humble to take home the grandest prize of the night.

Photo courtesy of Fox Searchlight

Best Picture Breakdown: Atonement

BuzzSugar — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 15:30:56 -0800

From now until the 2008 Oscars air on Sunday night, I'll be breaking down the five contenders for Best Picture, giving you the scoop on why each film could win and why it might not stand a chance. So far, I've taken a look at There Will Be Blood and Michael Clayton. Today's Best Picture nominee is Atonement.

Pride and Prejudice director Joe Wright works his magic with another desperately romantic drama, this one taking place in England before and during WWII. At the age of 13, imaginative aspiring writer Briony misconstrues a situation she witnesses and brings grave charges against her sister Cecilia's (Keira Knightley) lover, Robbie (James McAvoy). The terrible repercussions of this false accusation haunt Briony for the rest of her life, causing her to seek redemption for her mistake through her writing.

To see what I think about this Best Picture nominee's chances, read more.

Why It Might Win

Along with No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, Atonement has been a darling of the critics' circles thus far. Most importantly, BAFTA soundly rewarded the film and it won the Golden Globe for Best Picture - Drama.
The film is an all-around success. It's equally impressive on all counts: acting, art direction, costumes, not to mention - most notably, in my opinion - the magnificent score by Dario Marianelli. At the base of it all is Ian McEwan's novel, concisely adapted for screen by Christopher Hampton. Atonement is satisfying to watch because it gets high marks in all regards.
At the most basic level, the story in Atonement is greatly appealing. It's just a good old-fashioned love story, full of war and romance, intrigue and betrayal. All the visual and musical trappings aside, it's an easy tale for people to fall in love with.

Why it Might Not Win

As far as American audiences and critics go, Atonement may be trumped by, well, American stories. The meaty, masculine, violent story told in No Country or the cautionary tale of greed woven by There Will Be Blood may prove more palatable to the Academy.
Along similar lines, Atonement has already been honored many times, specifically with the BAFTA for Best Film. It's hard to say whether the Academy will want to reward the movie on top of that.

Photo courtesy of Focus Features

Best Picture Breakdown: Michael Clayton

BuzzSugar — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 14:33:41 -0800

The plot description on IMDB is most succinct: "An attorney known as the Fixer in his law firm comes across the biggest case of his career that could produce disastrous results for those involved." It's screenwriter Tony Gilroy's first attempt at directing and he lucked out with some phenomenal talent: George Clooney, Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson - all of whom nabbed acting nominations as well. To see what I think Michael Clayton has going for and against it in this year's race, read more.

Why It Might Win

The Academy seems to be smitten with this film. Other movies in this category have already won many awards in other circles, but this is the first awards committee to seem truly besotted with Clayton.
Director Tony Gilroy delivers some of the best direction I've seen in any of the movies from 2007. The quick edits and artful alternating between storylines makes for a visually interesting story. I was particularly struck by the ending in which the credits roll and the camera stays on Clayton's face as he sits in a cab, his destination unknown. The attention to detail on Gilroy's part is impressive.
That George Clooney . . . he's just so darn watchable. Playing the titular character, he struggles through this turning point in his life and we know that though he was once less of an upstanding person, there's no doubt that he's the ragged hero of this story. You just gotta love Clooney.

Why it Might Not Win

Though beloved by many critics and, clearly, the Academy, this movie isn't particularly appealing in the general sense. Many people found it to be boring, confusing and simply not enjoyable. Every one of the other movies nominated for Best Picture this year was a bigger hit with audiences.
While the larger message in this movie has to do with moving from moral emptiness to a place of redemption, in general, the subject matter isn't particularly grand. Lacking a sweeping universal subject as well as much interesting action, it may not grab that Best Picture award.
The same reason that it might win also works against Michael Clayton: it's been nominated for several awards. The Academy might reward the film in other categories and hand the statue for Best Picture to another movie.

Photo courtesy of Warner Bros.

Best Picture Breakdown: There Will Be Blood

BuzzSugar — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 14:30:14 -0800

Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood is a stark and stunning look at greed, power, and success viewed through the lens of the oil boom of the late 1800s and early 1900s. The bulk of its acclaim has come for Daniel Day-Lewis's performance as tycoon Daniel Plainview, but the movie has many other things going for it, as its eight Oscar nominations - for diverse categories including cinematography and sound editing - show. To see how I think There Will Be Blood will fare in the Best Picture race, just read more.

Why It Might Win

Three words: Daniel Day-Lewis. His Daniel Plainview is a greed-driven maniac, neglecting all - social conventions, religion, even his own son - in the service of his quest for power, fortune, and oil, oil, oil. Delivering the year's biggest movie catchphrase ("I drink your milkshake") is just the icing on the cake.
It's well-rounded. As its Oscar nominations show, it's strong in a number of different filmmaking categories, from the visual (including Best Art Direction) to the auditory (Best Sound Editing). It's still a shame that Jonny Greenwood's score was disqualified, because his music added yet another compelling dimension to the film.
It's ambitious. Through its focus on Plainview (and its secondary story of Paul Dano's young prophet), it seeks to tell a bigger story about religion, greed, community, and fatherhood.

Why It Might Not Win

It could have used some editing. As I noted in my review, the movie is a series of interlocking conflicts that can, at times, detract from the central story. A few of the subplots just didn't feel necessary enough to justify the film's 158-minute running time.
Day-Lewis truly does make this movie. The Academy could be content with rewarding him with the Best Actor nod and giving the overall prize to another film.
It could be a victim of its own success. Its ambiguous ending could be frustrating for some viewers, and voters who heard the movie described as "the next Citizen Kane" could have expectations too high for this film to meet.

Chance of winning: Moderate to good

Photos courtesy of Paramount Vantage

Best Picture Breakdown: Babel

BuzzSugar — Fri, 23 Feb 2007 12:26:31 -0800

All week, I've been breaking down each Best Picture nominee for the 2007 Oscars, which air this Sunday night. Yesterday we looked at The Departed, and today brings the fifth and final nominee, Babel.

The sprawling Babel isn't a critical darling; in fact, when the movie first came out, the reviews were decidedly mixed. But when the awards, nominations and spots on "best of" lists started rolling in, Babel became a serious Oscar contender. Now, with a Golden Globe in its pocket, Babel looks like the frontrunner for the award. For a look at its chances of taking home the Best Picture statue, read more

Why It Might Win

Babel is an ambitious film that tackles big themes - the interconnectedness of people, the way a single act can change the course of events around the world, the discomfort of being out of one's element. The Academy likes to reward important movies (Crash, for example), and Babel would fit right in.
Everyone in the ensemble delivers a strong performance. Babel flits between its four interconnected stories, and it would be easy to give up on any of them if not for the powerful acting. The film's pair of Best Supporting Actress nominees, Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barraza, make their respective plot lines compelling; Barraza, in particular, has some absolutely devastating scenes. But all of the actors - from the young Moroccan boys to superstars Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett - carry off their roles perfectly. There truly is no lead performance here; everyone supports each other.
Everything comes together. I don't just mean the stories, though Guillermo Arriaga's screenplay does unite them in the end (by however tenuous a thread). The film's stark cinematography and crisp editing contribute to the movie's overwhelming feeling of loneliness. It has to be tough to maintain a consistent tone when your film involves five languages and four drastically different settings, but Babel pulls it off.

Why It Might Not Win

It's a love it or hate it movie. Reviewers either pegged it as the best film of the year or said it wasn't worth the ticket price. Some people will be thoroughly engrossed by Babel's stories; others will think it's too heavy-handed, too confusing or too contrived.
It might be too complex for its own good. Some of the stories are stronger than others, and for a message movie, it's tough to know exactly what director Alejandro González Iñárritu is trying to say. Everyone seems to have a different concept of what the movie is about, and that could hurt Babel in the end.
It might be too dark. Babel is a seriously heavy movie, filled with tragedy after tragedy, and the ending - while less bleak than it could be - hardly qualifies as uplifting. If Little Miss Sunshine gets knocked back for being too feel-good, it seems possible that Babel could take a hit for not being feel-good enough.

Chances of Winning: Good

Best Picture Breakdown: The Departed

BuzzSugar — Thu, 22 Feb 2007 10:58:14 -0800

From now until the 2007 Oscars air this Sunday night, I'll be breaking down each Best Picture nominee and giving you the scoop on why certain movies might win and why others probably don't have a chance. Yesterday, we looked at The Queen, and today's featured movie is The Departed.

Upon leaving the theater after seeing this movie, I immediately declared it the surefire Best Picture winner. I've since revised my prediction and chosen Babel, but I'm still secretly pulling for this highly entertaining Scorsese picture. As I've said before, The Departed really gives me chills, not because it's disturbing, but because it's such a fun ride, not to mention a great story bolstered by incredible performances. As for The Departed's chances in the Best Picture category, read more

Why It Might Win

Frankly, it's just the kind of movie Oscar loves: well-crafted, critically acclaimed, and mighty in its scope.
People like the people involved: The Departed has the added benefit of a respected director and an all-star cast.
The movie is serious but also fun to watch, with lots of clever dialogue. Seriously, did anyone find The Departed dull?
It's already racked up tons of critics awards: 35 overall, eight of which were for best picture.

Why It Might Not Win

Some voters might consider it too violent. While the bloodshed wasn't what I remembered most about The Departed, it was an aspect that stuck with many viewers.
The Academy doesn't usually venture into the action genre, and this thriller borders on dude movie. Then again, that didn't hurt Gladiator.
It hasn't gotten a lot of other Oscar nominations. Aside from Mark Wahlberg, who is up for Best Supporting Actor, none of the other cast members are being honored with nods, and the movie has just five total nominations. Plus, if Scorsese wins Best Director as you all hope he will, the voters could very likely hand the Best Picture statuette to Babel.

Chances of Winning: Good

Photos courtesy of Warner Bros.

Best Picture Breakdown: The Queen

BuzzSugar — Wed, 21 Feb 2007 16:08:59 -0800

From now until the 2007 Oscars air this Sunday night, I'll be breaking down each Best Picture nominee and giving you the scoop on why certain movies might win and why others probably don't have a chance. Yesterday, we looked at Little Miss Sunshine, and today's featured movie is The Queen.

This docudrama focuses on Queen Elizabeth II in the aftermath of Princess Diana's tragic death in 1997. Helen Mirren went through a startling transformation to portray this real-life member of the Royal Family, a performance that will likely earn her the Best Actress win. As for The Queen's chances in the Best Picture category, read more

Why It Might Win

By and large, critics adored the film for its humanization of a public figure who many perceived to be cold and unfeeling.
Mirren's performance has obviously garnered a lot of buzz, but the Academy also thinks highly of the film beyond her work, as The Queen earned a total of 6 Oscar nominations.
The film has more pre-Oscar honors under its belt than any other Best Picture nominee. It has earned a whopping 44 awards, including Best Picture wins from BAFTA and the Toronto Film Critics Association. Granted, the vast majority of the other wins were for Best Actress and Best Screenplay, but still...

Why It Might Not Win

The subject matter is essentially too narrow, the themes not quite universal enough.
All bets are on Helen Mirren to win Best Actress, and because her performance is a huge part of the movie's success, the Academy might think the acting award is enough.
In comparison to some of the bigger, more commercial films (Babel, The Departed), The Queen is very quiet and possibly too intimate to win the big one.

Chances of Winning: Slim to Moderate

Best Picture Breakdown: Little Miss Sunshine

BuzzSugar — Tue, 20 Feb 2007 13:08:01 -0800

From now until the 2007 Oscars air this Sunday night, I'll be breaking down each Best Picture nominee and giving you the scoop on why certain movies might win and why others probably don't have a chance. Yesterday, we looked at Letters from Iwo Jima, and today's featured movie is Little Miss Sunshine.

This film is a classic case of an indie darling that became a surprise mainstream hit. The movie's heartwarming charm tinged with grim reality makes it hard to resist, and the widespread appeal was most likely a factor in its Best Picture nomination. For a look at Little Miss Sunshine's chances in the Best Picture race, read more

Why It Might Win

The well-crafted story about family quirkiness and solidarity appeals to most everyone. It's refreshing to see a family that is equally, or likely more bizarre than your own.
The screenplay is remarkably thoughtful in terms of plot, character development, and dialogue. The story itself has it all: drama, suspense, pathos, dark comedy, intellectual comedy, and physical comedy. That could, however, simply score Sunshine a screenwriting award.
It is supremely well-cast. Abigail Breslin is guileless in her performance, achieving things many adult actors never have. Alan Arkin is always enjoyable, as is Toni Collette. Greg Kinnear is spot-on, and Paul Dano turns teen angst into something not entirely cartoonish. Steve Carrell is, of course, many peoples' new favorite comedic actor, which makes it particularly painful to see him so darkly sad. As an ensemble, they basically kick ass.

Why It Might Not Win

It's way too feel-good for the Academy, which may simply recognize its merits with the Best Picture nomination and stop there.
While it's impressive that these first-time filmmakers created such a successful movie, they're still not nearly as accomplished as some of the other big guns behind the other Best Picture nominees.
The Academy tends to favor films that are either "important" (like Million Dollar Baby or Crash) or visually spectacular (Lord of the Rings, Gladiator). Little Miss Sunshine is rather homespun in comparison.

Chances of Winning: Slim

Source and Source

Best Picture Breakdown: Letters From Iwo Jima

BuzzSugar — Mon, 19 Feb 2007 16:11:28 -0800

From now until the 2007 Oscars air this Sunday night, I'll be breaking down each Best Picture nominee and giving you the scoop on why certain movies might win and why others probably don't have a chance. Today's featured movie is Letters From Iwo Jima, the second part of Clint Eastwood's one-two World War II punch that began with the schlockier Flags of Our Fathers.

Both movies tell the story of the Battle of Iwo Jima, but the better film, Letters, is presented from the perspective of the Japanese troops, led by General Tadamichi Kuribayashi (Ken Watanabe). For a look at Letters From Iwo Jima's chances in the Best Picture race, read more

Why It Might Win

The Academy loves Clint Eastwood. If this legendary man's-man-turned-director makes a good movie (read: Million Dollar Baby and Unforgiven), the voters often seem unable to resist its charms. But it's also possible that Eastwood could score the directing statuette, in which case, Letters probably won't win.
It is has the benefit of being both arty and manly. Not only is Letters a serious war movie, but it is also a visually stunning film with textures and colors that capture the era without looking contrived.

Why It Might Not Win

With the exception of inside Hollywood types, very few people have seen it. The movie was only released nationwide in late December, and by then, most of the reviews had been out for months, so the buzz was minimal to say the least.
The lack of big-name actors (aside from Watanabe) and everyday reference points means the movie lacks universal appeal. Lately, it seems Oscars are increasingly going to movies about modern-day characters with whom voters and viewers identify, e.g. Crash and American Beauty.

Chances of Winning: Moderate

Photos courtesy of Warner Bros.