Hamm has been nominated every year he's appeared on Mad Men (that's four, total), but he's never brought home the Emmy. Don had a series of ups and downs last season that showed more dimension (remember his tears in "The Suitcase"?), but competition is tough this year, even with perennial winner Bryan Cranston out of the race. He has a fair chance, but we wouldn't get our hopes up.
Chance of winning: Moderate to high
Photo courtesy of AMC