Fox's new serial drama, "Drive," [1] airs its third episode tonight as part of a whirlwind three-hours-in-two-nights premiere. The show, which I think is the TV equivalent of a summer movie [1], has been heavily promoted by Fox, with commercials during "American Idol" [1] and an interactive Web site [2].

However, it's been a tough season for serial dramas, with "The Nine," "Day Break," "Vanished," and others tanking after a few episodes. It's also been a tough few months for new shows in general: Witness the demise of "The Wedding Bells," [2] "The Black Donnellys" [2] and, most recently, "In Case of Emergency." Plus, creator Tim Minear has had two other series ("Wonderfalls" and "Firefly") canceled by Fox — and "Firefly" starred "Drive"'s leading man, Nathan Fillion.

Which leads me to ask: Will "Drive" be the rare breakthrough serial hit like "Lost" [2] or "24" [2]? Or will it land on the trash heap a few weeks from now?

Photo courtesy of Fox [3]