Well, we're through one elimination round on "American Idol," [1] and so far I'm only batting .500. I picked two of the eliminated contestants correctly but missed the other two completely.

To see who's gone — and to find out how the rest of the Sugar Network did —

Eliminated:

• Paul Kim





• Rudy Cardenas





• Amy Krebs





• Nicole Tranquillo

The only vaguely surprising elimination to me was Nicole's; I didn't hate her performance nearly as much as the judges did, though I didn't see her sticking around till the top 12 anyway. I thought people would kick off Nick instead of Rudy, but I'm not heartbroken that Rudy's gone.

For the record, two of my top 12 picks [1] are already out. This might be a rough year for my snap judgments.

What about you? Any shockers? To see how Sugar folks did overall, check out the guys' ballot [2] and the girls' ballot. [3]